Hull could have the slowest post-COVID-19 recovery, report warns

The city of Hull could be hit the hardest by the post-COVID-19 economic downturn and have the slowest recovery, according to a new report.

The report by the think tank Social Market Foundation (SMF) names the areas, which it believes will be face the worst job losses and take the longest to recover from any downturn.

It argues that the places facing the worst economic shock from the pandemic are mostly in London and the South East of England, but they will bounce back relatively quickly.

Instead, the report says the places that face a severe economic shock and then a slow recovery are mostly away from London and include some of the ‘Red Wall’ constituencies that changed hands at the 2019 general election.

It highlights Hull as the area in England which faces the worst economic impact and the slowest recovery, followed by Bradford and Walsall.

‘After the financial crisis, London recovered quickly because of a concentration of jobs in banking and insurance. Whilst these jobs will face the biggest initial blow from coronavirus, evidence suggests the capital is more economically resilient and the labour market will recover quicker than the rest of the country,’ the report says.

‘As the government tries to get its economic agenda back on track, it needs to be aware of those areas with multiple moderate or severe impact industries which could equate to a spike in localised job losses. This will be compounded if these areas had high pre-crisis rates of unemployment.’

SMF researcher Amy Norman added: ‘Policy makers need to recognise that national or even regional data can conceal the local realities of this recession and should not rely on it when making important decisions for the recovery from coronavirus.

‘The economic severity of coronavirus will be felt across many places, but we must remember that this recession does not occur in isolation. Many people and places outside of the capital will be particularly vulnerable due to the lasting hardships of the past decade,’ she added.

‘Young people’s jobs are most at risk, but a quarter of older workers also face job instability. Politicians have announced the guaranteed youth opportunity but are light on support for those in older categories who will find themselves out of work.’

The full report – Levelling down: the medium term local economic impact of coronavirus – is available to read here. 

Photo Credit – Geralt (Pixabay)